Tag: CoronaVirus

King County Public Health changed the data format again and went a few days without updates. Finally they have caught back up. We were in the 40s and 50s all week. The 2-week average finally dipped below 25 infections per 100k residents (just barely), so we should be good to

The model predicted 27 for today and King County came in at 29. Nice work model. So, where do we stand as far as getting to phase 2. According to Inslee’s criteria, we need to average less than 10 infections per 100k residents for 14 days. Since there are 2.2

So, we did end up seeing a mini-spike from Mothers’ Day. Here’s what it looked like: It may not look like much of a spike, but it represents a 75%-100% increase in infections vs. what would have normally happened. It suggests an R0 of ~1.5 vs. an R0 of <1

Uh oh. A little spike today. 86 was today’s number, the highest in 8 days. Could we see the revenge of Mothers’ Day Weekend? Or, was it just a blip? The logarithmic model predicts 49 tomorrow. The polynomial model says 10 for tomorrow, but it’s getting weaker. Unfortunately, these models

Why is Lee Smith’s picture on my blog today? Because yesterday’s COVID-19 infection number for King County was 46! That’s a low number – by my count, the lowest since March 10th! That’s 2 months ago! It’s hard to find jersey numbers in the 100s. If you’ve been reading this

Here’s a first: King County published today’s results 30 minutes early. That has never happened! Usually, it’s posted at least two hours late from their scheduled 1 pm release. Today’s number was 77, certainly above the models at 28 & 60. I am very curious about what will happen this

Can you believe it has been 70 days since the first COVID-19 infection here in King County? It seems like a long time, however, it also seems like just yesterday. 93 was today’s number. Significantly above both models. Interestingly, 93 was the number for yesterday alone, meaning there were no

I took 1 day off and look what happened. yesterday, King County reported negative-43 cases. That’s not a misprint. A big chunk of recent positive tests were wiped off the books – by my count over 100 from the past week. Numbers that were in the 100s are now in

King County came in high today: 128 infections. Almost triple the prediction from the “optimistic” model and almost double the logarithmic model. That being said, both models are sticking with their guns for tomorrow and still remain very predictive. I wonder what a day like today does to Inslee as

Happy Data Cleanup Day (aka Saturday). King County reported 122 infections, almost half of which were spread out over the past few weeks. So much for clean data. Also, I’ll continue to note that the county does not provide us common folk data on negative tests and total tests administered,