King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-19

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So, we did end up seeing a mini-spike from Mothers’ Day. Here’s what it looked like:

It may not look like much of a spike, but it represents a 75%-100% increase in infections vs. what would have normally happened. It suggests an R0 of ~1.5 vs. an R0 of <1 during the Washington State shutdown. When we hit phase 2 and offices reopen, we could see an R0 above 1.

The polynomial model is officially broken. It’s predicting -21 infections today. Although, if you remember, that has happened because of the errors King County has made reporting numbers, so I guess you never know.

I’m going to keep rolling forward with the logarithmic model, which is gaining in strength and looking very predictive. The model says 44 for today.

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