King County Public Health changed the data format again and went a few days without updates. Finally they have caught back up.
We were in the 40s and 50s all week. The 2-week average finally dipped below 25 infections per 100k residents (just barely), so we should be good to go for phase 2 now. Not that there’s any rhyme or reason why 25 infections per 100k is acceptable – it used to be that 10 was the bar. Whatever.
The big new though is that total # of test data is back on the website, so we can track what % of tests are positive. This is important! We want to see the % of tests that come back as positive decline as testing ramps up.
Here’s the all-time graph
Here’s the graph for the past month.
Good to see it decline. It’s hard to know what is good and what’s not good, if there are enough test to go around, etc. We’re at about 1,500 tests per day, down from the peak of almost 2k on May 6th.
Ok, back to the model. The model continues to lose power. I expect further increases in infections based on all the protesting. You can’t have 100s or 1000s of people together yelling and not have COVID transmission. It will cause more deaths. The model predicts today’s number will be 23. I’ll take the over.