King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-8

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Here’s a first: King County published today’s results 30 minutes early. That has never happened! Usually, it’s posted at least two hours late from their scheduled 1 pm release.

Today’s number was 77, certainly above the models at 28 & 60.

I am very curious about what will happen this weekend. Everyone in Seattle will be out and about for Mothers’ Day. Certainly, there will be some social distancing violations. Will there be a material impact on R0? Or, will it stay pretty low because there still won’t be any “super spreader” events? We’ll know more this time next week – most folks are using 5 days for the average incubation period.

I’m expecting the Polynomial Model to break very soon and soon be decommissioned. It’s predicting 26 for tomorrow. That’s just being ridiculous.

The Logarithmic Model is holding steady at 59 for tomorrow.

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