Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias

Sorry it has been a few days. My readers are texting me saying, GET YOUR NEXT POST UP! I had a post ready to go last week and somehow it didn’t get posted, so today I’ll compare that model’s forecast to what happened. But first, it has been a while

The model predicted a swift downturn in infections. What actually happened? We saw a slight decrease, however, a couple of large days (170+ on Wednesday and Friday) put a damper on a big decline. However, there have been 4 days under 100 infections over the past few weeks, which is

On Saturday I posted that the model called for a steep drop in infections in the near future. That perhaps the worst was over. Since then, we’ve seen 3 straight days of decreases in infection counts. Today’s number was 81. The last time we were that low was back on

I read a great blog post on the rise and fall of the coronavirus, and it forced me to ask myself an important question. Have I been tracking the wrong KPI? Is it wrong to look at infections, and should we have been looking at deaths (or hospitalizations) all along?

Here in Bellevue, 70% of parents want to send their kids to school in-person. But teachers’ unions don’t want to go back to school (although they still want their members to get paid the same). So we have a significant issue. I propose this free-market solution to solve this problem

I went out on a limb last week and predicted we would see a plateau. That’s exactly where we are. Here’s the 2-week chart: The model still says we’re going to grow, but we’ll see. I think we’re going to be in a holding pattern for a while. The model

The model said 194 yesterday and I called “under” based on what I see as a trend of plateauing and hopefully eventually a decrease in infections. Who was right? I’m going to declare a win in this battle. King County came in at 147 infections yesterday. The bigger win though

Numbers keep rising – we hit another new record over the weekend for most infections in a day. Yesterday’s number was 180. The model calls for continued increases. However, I believe we’re going to hit a plateau and potentially even start decreasing. Mask adoption has drastically improved, behaviors have changed,

Virtual school didn’t work for us. Sure, we muddled through, but virtual school left a lot to be desired: Limited social interaction Only 15 minutes of time with a teacher each week Difficulty staring at screens and worksheets Lots of uncertainty – were we doing things correctly? Trying to work

Sorry, I’ve been out of town. It’s good to be back! It was a little scary seeing how poor the testing was in Ohio. It took my dad 7 days to get his results back. In the meantime, he was not quarantining. My mom never heard back on her results