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Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias

A view from Seattle on all things sports, politics, and anything else that's on my mind

Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias
06/23/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-23

First, one comment on the country as a whole. You look at this chart of 7-day average of new infections, and you tell me if there is a 2nd wave… The model was right yesterday – predicted 40 and the county came in at 39 infections. That’s good news! However,

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06/22/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-22

I raised the alert on Thursday that infections were way up, and then on Friday there was a delay in posting the data – King County didn’t update until after 8pm (normally the target is 1pm) due to “data issues.” When the number was finally posted – I checked around

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06/18/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-18

Uh oh. Today’s number was 94!!! We haven’t had a number that high since May 6th. This is bad! We didn’t get approval for Phase 2 yet… I wonder if that’s on hold for now. By my numbers, we’re a hair above 25 infections per 100k. Or who knows –

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06/17/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-17

Hi readers. Today’s number was 38, more than double the model @ 17. Hitting 38 is barely enough to keep us in Phase 2 consideration. Consistently hitting 40 or over is game-over. Another interesting development: The # of tests performed is down in recent days. I’m not sure what’s going

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06/16/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-16

Drumroll please…. The model predicted 18, and King County came in at… 58?! 58 is a high number. For context, if King County averaged 58 infections per day, we would be at 36 infections for every 100k residents over the past 2 weeks. The benchmark for getting into Phase 2

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06/15/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-15

I’m going to show you one example of how King County Public Health is intentionally trying to show COVID-19 is “under control” by showing you two side-by-side charts of the same data that has appeared on KCPH’s website: The left side is from May 5th, and shows positive COVID-19 cases

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06/12/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-12

Today’s number is 60. That’s a big jump and concerning. I dug into the numbers, and half the infections are from yesterday, and the other half come from March/April/May. Yes, you read that correctly. King County shifted higher infection counts from March, April, and May by as much as 7

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06/10/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-11

The model predicted 19, and King County came in at 23. Very close. The interesting development today: the past two days have had the lowest % of positive test results since testing began. 1.6% on Monday and 1.4% yesterday. That’s pretty low when we were in double-digits not too long

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06/09/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-10

The model said 20, but we came in yesterday at 29. King County also bumped up slightly in cases per 100k residents and now exceed the arbitrary standard for entry into Phase 2. I expect we’ll slide under it again soon and be eligible for phase 2 next week. Still

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06/08/2020 Uncategorized

King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-8

King County Public Health changed the data format again and went a few days without updates. Finally they have caught back up. We were in the 40s and 50s all week. The 2-week average finally dipped below 25 infections per 100k residents (just barely), so we should be good to

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