Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias

First, one comment on the country as a whole. You look at this chart of 7-day average of new infections, and you tell me if there is a 2nd wave… The model was right yesterday – predicted 40 and the county came in at 39 infections. That’s good news! However,

I raised the alert on Thursday that infections were way up, and then on Friday there was a delay in posting the data – King County didn’t update until after 8pm (normally the target is 1pm) due to “data issues.” When the number was finally posted – I checked around

Uh oh. Today’s number was 94!!! We haven’t had a number that high since May 6th. This is bad! We didn’t get approval for Phase 2 yet… I wonder if that’s on hold for now. By my numbers, we’re a hair above 25 infections per 100k. Or who knows –

Hi readers. Today’s number was 38, more than double the model @ 17. Hitting 38 is barely enough to keep us in Phase 2 consideration. Consistently hitting 40 or over is game-over. Another interesting development: The # of tests performed is down in recent days. I’m not sure what’s going

Drumroll please…. The model predicted 18, and King County came in at… 58?! 58 is a high number. For context, if King County averaged 58 infections per day, we would be at 36 infections for every 100k residents over the past 2 weeks. The benchmark for getting into Phase 2

I’m going to show you one example of how King County Public Health is intentionally trying to show COVID-19 is “under control” by showing you two side-by-side charts of the same data that has appeared on KCPH’s website: The left side is from May 5th, and shows positive COVID-19 cases

Today’s number is 60. That’s a big jump and concerning. I dug into the numbers, and half the infections are from yesterday, and the other half come from March/April/May. Yes, you read that correctly. King County shifted higher infection counts from March, April, and May by as much as 7

The model predicted 19, and King County came in at 23. Very close. The interesting development today: the past two days have had the lowest % of positive test results since testing began. 1.6% on Monday and 1.4% yesterday. That’s pretty low when we were in double-digits not too long

The model said 20, but we came in yesterday at 29. King County also bumped up slightly in cases per 100k residents and now exceed the arbitrary standard for entry into Phase 2. I expect we’ll slide under it again soon and be eligible for phase 2 next week. Still