King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 8-17

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The model predicted a swift downturn in infections. What actually happened? We saw a slight decrease, however, a couple of large days (170+ on Wednesday and Friday) put a damper on a big decline. However, there have been 4 days under 100 infections over the past few weeks, which is positive.

The model is standing firm on predicting a further decline. From what I’ve been reading, we may be closer to herd immunity because of our long-standing interactions with other coronaviruses, namely, the common cold. If this is true, then maybe the model is right.

Even though the past few days have been a little above the regression line, the model’s power remains strong.

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