What to make of the College Football Pre-Season Poll

Every August, the College Football Pre-Season Poll comes out, and I never know what to make of it. Should I be glad that my beloved Buckeyes are in the top 5? I decided to look to the past to see the correlation between the Pre-Season Poll and the Final Poll.

Top 5 = Golden

If you’re a Pre-Season Top 5, you’re in good shape. In the last 4 years, all but 1 Pre-Season top 5 finished in the top 25, and 45% finished in the Top 5.

If you’re not in the Top 10, it’s a coin flip

The Top 10 will likely be in the Top 25 by season’s end. But for 11-25, things aren’t so certain. For 11-15, only 50% made the top 25 over the past few years, and the picture is even bleaker for the Bottom 10 – under 50% finished among the Top 25. One could even say it’s a curse to be in the Pre-Season 16-25.


Even worse – Pre-Season Top 25 that did not make the previous year’s Final Top 25

If you think being ranked 16-25 is bad, it gets worse. This year there are 7 teams that didn’t crack the Final Top 25 last year (Oklahoma – 7, Arkansas – 17, North Carolina -18, Florida State – 20, Auburn – 22, Georgia – 23, Oregon State – 24). Voters feel that either they had an off year last year, or the program is up-and-coming. History disagrees.

Only 35% of teams in this situation finished in the Top 25. That’s worse than being ranked 21-25. Don’t count on seeing most of these teams stick around.

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-08-29

  • Fun watching Freddie Montero dismantle Freddie L. & the Chicago Fire. #
  • Can't wait for college football to start. WSJ picks Ohio State to go the distance. http://bit.ly/bzQPHk #
  • Seattle, Monday. http://bit.ly/9OLo8F #
  • First fantasy draft tomorrow – my first auction. Value-based draft spreadsheet prepped and ready. It's slick! #
  • This will be handy after my fantasy football draft: 700 NFL players on Twitter http://bit.ly/c77oCJ #
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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-08-15

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Thoughts about hiring a coach

In the world of work, there’s usually a defined process for hiring someone:

  1. Create a job description, including both the responsibilities of the role and the desired skillset of the person to be hired
  2. Review hundreds of resumes
  3. Interview the top X candidates
  4. Invite a select few back for further interviews, testing, background checks, and reference checks
  5. Hire the top candidate (if found)

However, in the sports world, this is rarely followed. The process is almost the exact opposite:

  1. Identify top candidate available based on no criteria
  2. Interview top candidate
  3. Offer top candidate the job

There are almost limitless examples of teams that have done this. My favorite example is Billy Donovan, who was #1 on the list of the Orlando Magic back in 2007. He was interviewed and immediately hired, only to have a change of heart, forcing the Magic to go to #2 on their list and hiring Stan Van Gundy 4 days later. Do you think the Magic had a chance to interview other candidates and really survey the coaching landscape, looking for the next best hire?

Similarly, the Washington Redskins had Mike Shanahan picked out as their desired next head coach before Jim Zorn was even fired. The Rooney Rule, which requires teams to interview at least 1 minority candidate before making an official hire was followed. The Redskins gave a courtesy interview to Jerry Gray, secondary coach. But their mind was already decided.

College sports work a little differently than the pros, where the coach is basically a mercenary, brought in to lead the paid troops, and discarded quickly for poor performance. In college, having stability at head coach is critical to recruiting as well as fundraising. Typically a search process is followed where more candidates are considered and interviewed.

Take for example, the 2001 Ohio State Buckeyes, who publicly interviewed 5 candidates before deciding upon Jim Tressell. The parade of the 5 candidates in the public was a great way to get additional feedback from across the university before making the big decision. Another easy example is at Nebraska, where over several weeks the team interviewed 5 coaches and decided upon Bo Pelini.

While the two examples cited above were successes, sometimes the interview process is more of a routine than a process. The Auburn Tigers hired Gene Chizik over highly regarded Turner Gill after the 2008 season, causing an uproar in the college football community. Fans questioned how Auburn could hire the coach with the worst credentials (Chizik) over the best credentials (Gill). Some cited racism.

Which brings me to my main point: I’m pleased with the way the Mariners filled the gap after firing Don Wakamatsu. Question the firing all you want, but the Mariners used a good approach after the firing.

By literally “calling up” Daren Brown from AAA to lead the Mariners on an interim basis, they’ve given themselves time to conduct a thorough process to hire the manager for 2011. Brown is not likely the full-time replacement as he has 2 strikes against him: 1) Never played in the majors 2) Is a former pitcher.

Some fans say if they knew they were firing Wakamatsu, they should have nabbed Buck Showalter while he was available. (Showalter was hired two weeks ago by the Orioles.) However, this is the wrong thinking. The Mariners need the right manager for this point in their lifecycle. They’re going to have a lot of young talent on the roster next year that will continue to need to be developed. An interim manager gives Jack Zduriencik time to come up with the job description, thoroughly vet candidates, and conduct interviews.

This process is increasingly catching on in MLB. The Arizona Diamondbacks promoted bench coach and former Tiger Kirk Gibson to be interim manager, and the Marlins promoted AAA manager Edwin Rodriguez to the interim post.

Let’s hope Jack Z hires the right guy for this stage of the Mariners instead of the right guy at the wrong time – Wakamatsu.

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How to make Seahawks training camp better for fans

I attended the open practice/scrimmage the Seattle Seahawks held at Husky Stadium on Sunday at the mid-point in training camp. It was a fun event and a great chance to get a sneak preview of the team. And, it was free, with free parking. Hard to beat that.

The only problem: only 6,231 people attended. That’s pathetic.

I’ve attended the equivalent practice for the Ohio State Buckeyes in previous years at Ohio Stadium that consistently draws 60,000 people. And, as Allen Iverson would say, “We’re talkin’ ’bout PRACTICE.”

Here were, in my view the chief problems of the Seahawks’ scrimmage:

  • As a fan, it was difficult to know what was going on. There were random drills all over the field, then what appeared to be a game. However, the ball would shift position at random times with no explanation.
  • There was no interaction with the fans whatsoever.
  • It was not well advertised. Many people didn’t know it was going on. I found out through Twitter, and I don’t remember seeing anything about it in the papers.

Here’s how to fix training camp to be better for fans:

  • Focus fans toward one big training camp event. Instead of promoting all the practices in Renton, still keep those open, but encourage fans to attend the big one at Husky Stadium.
  • Put some advertising muscle behind it.
  • Have a public address announcer. Have them announce who caught the ball, who made the tackle, etc. Add some excitement, and take away some of the bewilderment of organized chaos on the field.
  • Have the players either come early or stay late and sign autographs. Really make it a fan friendly event.
  • Bring in the SeaGals. They need to practice for the regular season too.
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Seahawks training camp notes

I attended the Seahawks’ open training camp at Husky Stadium on Sunday. It was a great event, and the fans got to see all the players run through drills and play a quick scrimmage. (More pictures at the bottom)

Key Takeaways:

  • Hasselbeck took part in a few drills but didn’t take one snap in the scrimmage. Weak sauce.
  • Golden Tate looked pretty good, having one nice grab during the scrimmage and a couple in the drills. He picked up some nice yards after the catch, which is what is expected of him. However, he miffed receiving a kick.
  • Housh caught one pass but was otherwise quiet
  • JP Losman couldn’t find open receivers.
  • Mike Williams (2nd chance WR out of USC) caught a TD passed but dropped an easy pass earlier in the scrimmage
  • Anthony McCoy (rookie TE out of USC) dropped an easy touchdown grab
  • The RB corps looked great. All of Jones, Forcett, and Washington found nice holes. Didn’t run any plays to the outside though – very conservative play calling.
  • Kicking game was horrible. All FGs were missed. Not sure why the punter lined up for a 45-yarder. Seahawks do not play Tressellball.
  • Didn’t see much out of first round picks Russell Okung or Earl Thomas. Hope to see more during preseason games
  • I’m buying into Pete Carroll’s program. He’s going to need at least 2 years though – just doesn’t have the personnel yet.

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Twitter Weekly Updates for 2010-08-08

  • Germans call tungsten "Wolfram." Hence the "W" on the periodic table. #
  • Chart of the day: AOL Revenue: '07 to '10 http://bit.ly/dwSr7t #
  • "Men are 35% faster and 2.4% more accurate than women at parking cars overall" http://bit.ly/ctk5A6 #
  • Seeing the Blue Angels circling outside is pretty cool #
  • Wish I saw this while visiting the San Juan Islands. Cool photo. http://bit.ly/ayX6nG #
  • A visual flight diary: "Takeoff! The fight for armrest supremacy begins!" http://nyti.ms/cwLGZE #
  • Great back and forth on the interchange debate. Author calls Durbin amendment "elegant solution." http://bit.ly/biM2sO #
  • Nobody wants to be the carpenter! RT @MattRogish: The Oregon Trail movie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHps2SecuDk #
  • I don't understand what Seafair is. #
  • Rhubarb does not taste as it looks #
  • I agree with USS Mariner – I've never heard of a "team trying to get its manager fired." @BNightengale – focus on the game #
  • "The Mariners are playing like a team trying to get its manager fired. Wakamatsu's future clearly in doubt" @BNightengale #
  • Of all 30 MLB managers, only Bud Black is a former pitcher. #
  • No punter or placekicker has ever coached an NFL team. #
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Buy a share of Facebook through Sharespost

Facebook isn’t listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. But you can find the company on Sharespost, a secondary market for private companies where stock grants are actively traded.

The idea is intriguing. Current and former employees are loaded with shares that may be worth something someday. But until then, they’re left with few options to liquidate their shares. Sharespost is the answer.

Sharespost is like a Craigslist for stock in private firms. You can post an offer to buy shares at a price, or post your shares to sell. Sharespost facilitates the trade.

Tesla was one of the companies listed on Sharespost before it went public at the end of June. Back in February, someone bought shares of Tesla for $9 per share. Since the company went public, you can get shares more easily on NASDAQ, but it will cost you $22 per share. The bold trader from February doubled up in 4 months.

If you want to buy a share of Facebook today, there are plenty available at $75 per share. But that’s an implied valuation of $33 B. Facebook’s last round of fundraising pegged the value at $10 B, so it’s quite a premium. However, as Facebook’s valuation has been trending, it might be the perfect time to buy.

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NFL Coaches are like an Eminem song; you get one shot

I’m excited for the Seattle Seahawks with new coach Pete Carroll taking over the helm. Carroll is a dynamic figure who seems to bring an elevated energy level and passion to the field.

Pete Carroll is a rare breed in the NFL, getting his 3rd shot as a head coach after short stints with the New York Jets and New England Patriots a decade ago. Most coaches don’t get a second chance, let alone a third.

Only 7 of the 32 NFL coaches are on their 2nd or greater coaching gig…

I also looked at experience levels of current coaches. Surprisingly, two-thirds have 4 or fewer years of experience…


The interaction of these charts is the most interesting. Of the 7 coaches that have had multiple stints at the helm, 5 have coached over 10 years. Meaning, if you don’t make it to 10 years, you’re not likely to ever head coach again.

Key Takeaways:

  • “Experienced NFL Coach” is a very rare breed. Only Andy Reid and Jeff Fisher have 10+ years of experience and have only head coached one team
  • If you don’t find success in the first few years at your first head coaching job, like the Jim Zorns of the world, you will likely never be  head coach again (not that anyone is clamoring for Zorn). However, there are paths to success, like Mike Sherman, who is head coaching in college after his decent run with the Packers.
  • These stats confirm that coaches like Pete Carroll are rare. 2nd chances (for head coaches at least) just don’t come around very often. It’s also interesting that the previous Seahawks coach, Jim Mora, was also coached multiple teams for a total of 4 years. Mora will likely never head coach again in the pros.
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No trains in our neighborhood!

“Not in my backyard” is a common phrase people say in response to initiatives that are positive for society but could have negative impacts to the surrounding area. Nuclear power plants, landfills, and homeless shelters are a few examples.

Add light rail to the list. Folks in South Bellevue have taken it a step further by actually printing up signs with a modified form of the phrase: “No trains in our neighborhood.”

The signs are part of an initiative by BetterBellevue.org to stop Sound Transit from running light rail through the neighborhood.

I think the signs are a bit much.

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