King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 11-16

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I predicted we would see 600 infections in a day last week, and King County came in with 2 days above 600. Last Wednesday came in at a whopping 689 infections. Thursday was close at 670.

So for this week, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to hit 800 in a day. The model certainly predicts that.

The impact of Inslee’s new COVID restrictions won’t hit the numbers for a week or two. It will certainly have a positive impact on infections.

Let’s start with the model: It’s getting stronger and more predictive. If you go out a few weeks, the model predicts 2,000+ infections per day.

Hospitalizations also show an upward trend moving forward, but they’re still low for now. There is a lag from infections to hospitalizations as well. Model fit is lower as well.

Deaths, which is lagged yet again from infections and hospitalizations, hasn’t budged. The model still predicts it will go to zero. This trend could change next week – I’ll keep my eye on it.

For prediction, you heard it here first we will likely hit 750+ infections in a day this week. Hospitalizations will creep up. Deaths will remain flat.

As for the new lockdowns issued from the Governor yesterday, they will likely slow the rapid rise in cases that we’ve seen in Washington. How much? I don’t really know. If you look at the impact the March lockdown had, it took about 2 weeks for the impact to start showing up, and then cases cratered. Also, it was getting warmer and more sunlight.

People generally want to do the right thing. However, there are a couple of mitigating factors. First, there will be less sunlight with colder temperatures, both will contribute to more cases. Second, I think people are experiencing lockdown fatigue. Third, I think there’s some skepticism as to the Governor’s plan. These are not my words, but likely what others are thinking: If lockdowns work, why didn’t it work the first time? Why is it ok to still have these protests in the streets, but we can’t have Thanksgiving together? Does the Governor have the authority to keep doing this?

We’ll see what happens. I do believe the infection curve will flatten, which will cause the model to need to be rebuilt based on this external factor. Who’s excited for 6th order polynomial models?!?!

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