King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-3

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Hello my 2 readers! Thanks for hanging in there.

There was a big spike on Saturday – 82 infections. Which I guess is not super surprising given the typical 5-day lag we see in infections. What happened 5 days before Saturday? Memorial Day. I’m very interested in seeing if and how infections spike after the protests.

So where do we stand? Because of the Saturday spike, we’re still above Jay Inslee’s “revised” target of 25 infections-or-less on average over the past 14 days. Technically we should get below the target in the next 3 days, however, I’m guessing the governor is going to want to see some sustained improvement before granting phase 2 status. In reality, does it matter? Inslee is just making things up at this point, with “modified phase 1.” So much for “science.”

The model’s power declined a little bit with the weekend spike, with an r-squared at 0.8334. The prediction for tomorrow is 23.

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