Remember on Monday when I said we breached our previous record high for infections twice in one week? Well, we did it again this week. “We’re #1” has a whole new meaning now.
Friday, October 30th was revised higher to 415 infections, and Wednesday hit 402 infections, which will almost certainly be revised higher as well since many of the COVID tests still take a few days to get results. We could see our first day in the 500s when Thursday’s numbers are released.
Here’s the 30-day trend.
As for the prediction model, it actually improved significantly this week. Which is a bad sign – the exponential growth has actually proved out. The R-Squared is now at 0.59. If these trends hold, we’ll hit 600 infections in a day next week.
I still believe that deaths is the key statistic to keep our eyes on. It still hasn’t budged from about 1 death a day, even with the dramatic rise in cases. However, the model still predicts a sharp increase around the corner.
Hospitalizations have remained flat as well at about 6 per day. What’s pretty amazing is the comparison of hospitalizations to deaths, and a testament to healthcare workers, researchers, and awareness efforts. We really turned the corner in July.