King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 11-2

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I really didn’t think this model would be right. There was nothing in the numbers to say things were going to go up back in September. But they sure did, and fast.

The model has absolutely nailed this portion of the COVID-19 outbreak. The 7-day average today is the highest it has ever been – higher than wave 1 and wave 2.

My biggest fear, though, is that we’re going to face another set of strict lockdowns from King Inslee like Europe has instituted.

Here’s the model – and the curve is only getting steeper.

As for deaths, the number we should care about most, we still have not seen an increase. The 7-day average remains at 1 per day. Back in wave 1, the average was 12. In wave 2, we hit 2 per day.

Still, when you apply the same modeling technique as infections, the sharp increase is back. And, the fit is solid.

Have a safe and happy election day!

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