Author: Sam

Things have been kind of plugging along in recent days. Infections are flat – not down and not up. Averages over the past few weeks are still going down, but this is more of an artifact of infections being higher 2-3 weeks ago, not that the data continues to trend

Numbers continue to tick down slightly recent days. We’ve seen an average of 77 infections per day over the past 2 weeks, down from over 100 2 weeks ago. Deaths continue to barely register – a handful last week. So, the big question is where do cases go from here?

Numbers continue to trend downward, but not as fast as the model predicted. The model lost significant power over the weekend and now has an r-squared of 0.51 – basically a coin flip. But… like any good analyst, I had a secret, backup model that I built. I’ve been running

I heard a stat last week that the price of a Uhaul from San Francisco to Boise was 2X higher than the price of that same Uhaul in the opposite direction: Boise to San Francisco. The cost of doing business in San Francisco is higher than Boise, so a higher

King County has resumed updating COVID data, however, it doesn’t look very accurate. the number of tests was down 50% in the past few days. I’m guessing they put some more tests in a box in the back of their closet. Despite all that, the model has retained its strength

King County Public Health didn’t update their dashboards today due to the fires in Eastern Washington and smoke in King County. This is not a joke. Apparently the power is out at some of the reporting locations. While the dashboards aren’t updated, the raw data Excel file IS updated! So

Today is the first day of school! My wife and I are both a product of public schools. We wanted the same for our children, and we gave it our best shot. However, we’ve reached our limit and made the decision to pull our children out of public schools and

Since I left you hanging last week, here’s a mid-week update. Yesterday’s number was 104. It’s down a bit, but not in line with the model, that says it should be much lower. The model continues to lose power, so I’m going to have to figure something else out. I

Sorry it has been a few days. My readers are texting me saying, GET YOUR NEXT POST UP! I had a post ready to go last week and somehow it didn’t get posted, so today I’ll compare that model’s forecast to what happened. But first, it has been a while

The model predicted a swift downturn in infections. What actually happened? We saw a slight decrease, however, a couple of large days (170+ on Wednesday and Friday) put a damper on a big decline. However, there have been 4 days under 100 infections over the past few weeks, which is