I read a great blog post on the rise and fall of the coronavirus, and it forced me to ask myself an important question. Have I been tracking the wrong KPI? Is it wrong to look at infections, and should we have been looking at deaths (or hospitalizations) all along?
Here’s the King County chart for infections. 2 giant peaks (ironically both peaks reached 222), and we’re still near the 2nd peak.
Here’s the same chart, but for COVID-19 deaths. Wait – where is that 2nd peak?
Now, it’s a great thing that people aren’t dying from COVID, for whatever reason. However, it begs the question, if people are no longer dying from COVID, or even being hospitalized, what should our reaction to the virus be? Should we continue the lockdowns? Or is it ok to open things up? What’s the difference between COVID and the cold and/or the flu if people are no longer dying from COVID?
I don’t have the answers to those questions, but I’m glad people are starting to ask them.
The model has come to a similar conclusion (with a high r-squared value). The model is now calling for the end of the 2nd peak and a steep drop-off. Adios, virus. I don’t know if it will be next week, August 25th (as the blog post I referenced earlier predicted), or some other date. The model says it’s coming soon though.