King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-27

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King County announced 78 new infections today (almost all occurred on Sunday – no data cleanup), between the two models at 61 and 82. I’ll keep running the two models in parallel.

The polynomial model says 54 infections tomorrow and 8 days to 0. We’ll start calling this the optimistic model.

I tweaked the “new” model, which is now a logarithmic model. It’s predicting 73 tomorrow and a slow deceleration to 0 infections in 32 days. This seems more realistic.

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