King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-26 – (with an all-new model!)

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101 was today’s number. Model said 63. It’s the fourth day in a row that King County has come in above the model.

The curve is still looking pretty good though and the r-squared is strong. The model is predicting 61 for tomorrow.

However, I was getting a little bored so I built a new model that splits the world before the “Stay Home, Stay Safe” order and after. I used 5 days after the order to proxy the delay in infections. That model looks pretty good and has a much slower decline in infections (kind of like what we’re seeing). The new model says 82 tomorrow.

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