King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 10-26

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It’s been a couple weeks. Sorry about that.

I’m sorry to report we recently had our highest daily total: 238 infections in a single day. That beats the two previous peaks. The trend is definitely moving up. I’ve heard of several people now in the Washington area that have caught COVID now for the second time. Yikes.

The Fifth Order Polynomial model has stood the test of time. It’s still working and predictive. And it’s calling for a further increase in infections. I did end up building a 6th order polynomial model, but it’s basically saying the same thing as the 5th order, so I’m going to stick with the original for now.

So I wondered, what is the chart looking like for deaths. Despite the huge increase in infections, deaths has remained very, very low. Only 7 in the past 2 weeks. First, I’m going to show the chart without the trendline, and then I’ll add the trendline.

Without a trendline, it looks like it is going to zero. Nothing to see here.

But aha! What if we add the same 5th order polynomial regression trendline that we did for infections, now to the chart for deaths?

Whoa! First of all, it’s a very predictive model. Second, look at the spike that the model says is coming.

Now, the model doesn’t know about the improvement in treatment, the new medicines, plasma, etc. However, it does have scary potential.

Be safe out there!

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