Posted by The big win last week was Bellevue Parks opened their playgrounds last week after the urging from my letter. My kids are in heaven!
Back to business: here’s the 3-week trend. We’re definitely on our way up and entering wave #3.
Here’s the longer-term view. The 5th order polynomial model has lost a little power but still performing nicely. It DID predict wave 3 would come, however, it hasn’t been as intense as expected. The warm weather 2 weeks ago likely helped, although the recent cold, rainy weather will likely add to the numbers soon.
Could the model be right? Could we really hit 400-infections a day in coming weeks?
I think it’s definitely possible. COVID-19 could crowd out other cold and flu viruses and we could see a real up-tick. While no one would freak out if 400 people catch the cold in a day, there will be freak outs if COVID hits those levels.