King County announced 78 new infections today (almost all occurred on Sunday – no data cleanup), between the two models at 61 and 82. I’ll keep running the two models in parallel.
The polynomial model says 54 infections tomorrow and 8 days to 0. We’ll start calling this the optimistic model.
I tweaked the “new” model, which is now a logarithmic model. It’s predicting 73 tomorrow and a slow deceleration to 0 infections in 32 days. This seems more realistic.