King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 9-28

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Sorry if these posts are a little boring recently. Not a lot has happened. Feels like we’re playing the waiting game.

Zooming out a little bit from the daily prediction, the 2nd half of September has been an inflection point, and numbers are ticking up. I don’t know if this is the surge we were waiting for since Labor Day, the cooler weather, increase in protests, or drifting. In any case, the past 5 days have all been above the 2-week average. The 2-week trend is now moving up.

No impact on deaths, which are flat. 10 in the last two weeks, which was the same as last month.

The 5th order polynomial model still has the best fit, which hasn’t really changed in recent days. But, it’s calling for an almost exponential rise moving forward. We’ll see, – I can’t imagine it goes up that quickly, so I’ll be building other options in the background.

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