King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 7-17

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Sorry, I’ve been out of town. It’s good to be back! It was a little scary seeing how poor the testing was in Ohio. It took my dad 7 days to get his results back. In the meantime, he was not quarantining. My mom never heard back on her results before her surgery.

Quite a lot has happened in the past few weeks. Yesterday was the highest single day infections total. Yikes! The number was 239. Now, this was spread out of a couple of days, so reporting lag is partly to blame.

Testing is at an all-time high for King County, but % positives remains pretty high too – still hovering between 3-4%.

The logarithmic model is busted. I built a new model: an order-3 Polynomial regression. What it models out is two waves, then a decline. That would be a great case. But the model says we’re not done with wave 2. The model predicts 172 infections tomorrow.

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