Is it groundhog day? Not from the monotony of quarantine, but the idiosyncrasies of King County Department of Public Health Coronavirus reporting. Today they announced 161 infections – the highest since last Saturday, which was a very similar 164. Another similarity: 47% of infections were from earlier in the week/month/year
Continue readingAuthor: Sam
King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-17
The model nailed it. The model predicted 102, and the county came in at 93. Interestingly, all 93 were infections from Thursday, so it sounds like we’ve shifted 100% to same-day testing (no lag), which is awesome! The model for tomorrow says 95. 13 days to 0
Continue readingWhat has happened to crime since “the quarantine?”
Since it’s been almost a month since Inslee’s “Stay Home” order, and I wondered, what has happened to crime? I looked at Bellevue crimes reported within 2 miles of downtown over the past 12 weeks. In short: Crime has declined significantly in the last 4 weeks! In the last 4
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-16
There’s always regression to the mean. For the first time in a while, King County reported a number (112) that exceeded the model’s prediction (105). Today’s number approached breaking the 7-day moving average, which would be a bad sign. I’m not super surprised by today’s number coming after Easter. Let’s
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-15
Really excited about another low day: 77 infections reported today. 75% of those are from Tuesday. I really wish we could see how many tests are being conducted and what % are positive. The polynomial model predicts 105 for tomorrow and 0 in 2 weeks. WOW! I believe the former
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-14
Boom! 71 reported infections today from King County public health. That’s the lowest number since March 16th. While it’s good news, there are a couple of factors in play here: The Easter lag and the cleanup in reporting over the weekend. Same day infections made up 85% of today’s tally
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-13
I predicted today’s number would be down due to a variety of factors: weekend reporting, Easter Holiday, and Saturday as a “catch-up” day for processing old data. How did that prediction turn out? Pretty well I think! King County reported 123 new infections, the lowest number in a long time
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-12
164 reported infections today in King County. A tad higher than the polynomial model’s projection of 155 and slightly lower than the linear model’s prediction of 196. I was expecting a down day, however, it was higher than I was expecting. When I dig into the numbers a bit, exactly
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-11
A down day for King County, which is good news. 145 new infections. Polynomial model wins (predicted 154). The polynomial model remains the most predictive model with a strong r-squared value of 0.8035 and predicts we’ll hit 0 in 30 days (May 11th). Predictions for tomorrow: Polynomial model: 151 Linear
Continue readingKing County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-10 part 2
Updating based on today’s #s: Another big day – one of the biggest on record for King County. 231 reported infections and 19 deaths. Needless to say, the upward linear regression model wins for the 3rd straight day (predicted 192). Now I’m not surprised that they closed down all the
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