Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias

Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias had a great year. But what articles did readers enjoy the most?

5.  Redmond is the most expensive Washington city to live in – Were you like me and thought Bellevue was the most expensive city in Washington?

4. US Debt-to-GDP Ratio- Deservedly, the US got downgraded from AAA debt in 2011. Not surprisingly, Switzerland and Germany are on the list of AAA, but I was quite surprised that the UK was still among the top-rated countries, along with Hong Kong and Norway. Interestingly, the US is one of the few countries with a Debt-to-GDP ratio below 100%. I was quite surprised by The Netherlands and Norway above 400%. It’s clear that the path to solvency is getting the US budget back on track. With the current leadership on both sides, my confidence of this happening is very low.

3. NBA Arena in Bellevue – I don’t know precisely where the NBA might build an arena in Bellevue, but I have a couple ideas.

2. NFL Concussions – My magnum opus of 2011 was inspired by a head injury that I suffered myself, and realized that others were undergoing the same injury with no idea of the long-term implications. Although I wasn’t playing football, I hit my head and blacked out, going into seizures and needing to be revived by medical staff. I was woozy for days. At that time, much less was known about the diagnosis and treatment of concussions, so my recovery consisted of lying on the couch. Like NFL players, the only thing I can do is hope I won’t suffer any long-term impacts.

1. Who has the toughest college football schedule in 2011 – The top post in 2011 wasn’t without controversy. The SEC had the weakest schedule among top conferences, yet the got both spots in the Championship. Do I think they deserved it? No Way. Oklahoma State or Stanford definitely deserved that spot over Alabama. But I’ll be watching the game, and rooting for a playoff in future years.

From the Lufthansa in-flight magazine.

• When I rolled over my 401k two years ago, eTrade would not let me transfer the cents, thus I was stuck with $0.07 in my account
• I tried to cancel my account, but they would not let me, stating there was still value in the account ($0.07).
• Every quarter they pay the postage and printing necessary to send me a statement telling me I still have $0.07 invested with them.

I’m going to let them keep sending me these statements until they figure out how to run their business better.

Brown Jug Liquor

Anchorage Alaska

Community Minded

I don’t venture into Walmart very often, but on a field visit this summer, I snapped this beauty…

• Slippers? Check
• Exposed boxers? Check
• Half-used cigarette behind the ear? Check

Unless I’m short of blog material, I’m not going back anytime soon.

“May I use this opportunity to introduce myself to you.”

It’s a common intro to a Nigerian 419 scam, but I’ve never seen it in physical print. That is, until I opened my mailbox last night to this envelope with a stamp from Tanzania.

The letter was sent from Dar es Salaam, the largest city in Tanzania, and took 15 days to arrive. Think our postage rates are high – it costs 800 Shillings to mail a letter from Tanzania.

Inside, the letter was the same as any other Nigerian scam. There were some nice touches, however. My full name was included in 2 places in the letter.

Most interesting to me is a look at the economics of sending a letter like this. 800 Tanzanian Shillings is roughly $0.54 USD. Adding paper, ink and an envelope, let’s round it it to a nice $0.75 per letter.

What’s their response rate? I’d have to guess below 1 basis point, or 1 out of every 10,000 letters. The average profit per scam is probably somewhere in the $10,000 range.

In the scenario I laid out, the scammers would net roughly $2,500 per 10,000 letters, with an ROI of 133%. The scammers need about 1 out of 13,000 people mailed to be duped to break even. Also, if I’m too generous in my assumptions (lower response rate, lower scam $ amount), then the scammers are probably in the red.

For email, the scammer have no costs to speak of, so it’s extremely profitable. This type of scam is an easy no-brainer… just send it to every email address you can get your hands on. But for snail mail, the economics aren’t nearly as lucrative. Maybe the Tanzanians/Nigerians are running a test in a new channel.

I love reading Nate Silver’s Five Thirty Eight blog (now part of NY Times). Reading it for the political insight is great, but I actually read it for his methodologies. The way he leverages the trends of polls to create his own forecast is fascinating (and more accurate than the individual polls themselves). I also like how he adds his level of certainty for each prediction – it adds another level of insight that talking heads on TV neglect to consider.

I wondered, how did Silver do this election cycle? Pretty well.

Silver’s original map (Senate)

Actual Results

Silver was 92% correct on Senate races (missed AK, NV, & CO) and 95% on Governor races (missed IL & FL). But his record is even more impressive than this…

In 56 of 73 races for Senate/Governor, Silver assigned a 90% probability or higher that he was correct. He got all of them right. This included some tricky races including the Feingold upset, the crowded Senate race in Florida, and the close race in PA.

But even on the races that he had less confidence in, Silver delivered. He was 71% in races he assigned an 80% probability to, and 70% in toss ups (50-80%). Clearly, Silver understands the weaknesses in his model and compensates for it with lower certainty.

Further analysis

To really stress test Silver’s prognostications, I looked at how well he fared on margin of victory. I compared his margin of victory to actual and found that he was within 2 points over 50% of the time for the Senate (30% of the time for Governor). The accuracy is mind-blowing.

Where can Silver improve?

I looked for bias is Silver’s predictions. First, I looked at predictions by party. In both the Senate and for Governor, independents got a higher percentage of the vote than Silver predicted. There wasn’t a consistent bias between Democrat and Republican though.

I also wondered if Silver was better or worse in predicting margin of victory in close races versus blowouts. I compared his “certain” predictions to the ones where he had less certainty to see if there was any difference in the margin of victory error.

Silver did better predicting close races than blowouts. I thought it would be the other way around, since close races typically have a large swing/undecided vote that can go either way, but in landslides, I would have guessed that there is a smaller swing-vote contingent. Perhaps it is driven by more polling in close races, which allows Silver to refine his model more than blowouts. Either way, it’s impressive.

I finally canceled my$29.99, 300 daytime minute “Free and Clear” plan from the year 2000.

It’s pretty easy to talk to someone in the cancellation department. It’s the canceling that’s difficult to get done.

First of all, when you reach a person, make sure you write down their name. Ask them for first and last name, how to spell it, and ask which call center they are working in. You’ll need this, because likely they will hang up on you.

You see, Sprint’s retention department is paid based on how many cancellations they “save” i.e. don’t allow to cancel. Every call they complete without canceling service counts as a save. By getting the person’s name and location, the chances of them hanging up on you decrease dramatically as they face the prospect of getting reported to their supervisor for the practice.

Second, if you’re intent on canceling, don’t feel the need to explain yourself and chatter with the phone rep. They’ll try to ask you questions and talk you into staying. Just tell them politely that you’ve made up your mind and would like to cancel.

Finally, don’t agree to pay for any days of service past the current day. They will try to bill you for an entire billing cycle. The phone rep will say something to the effect of “ok, you’re canceled as of today, and you can make calls up until the end of your billing cycle.” This is code for “We’re charging you for more service than you want.” Don’t agree to it. Ask to speak to a supervisor. Don’t take no for an answer.

I know for a fact that a supervisor can make this happen, as I had to take this route myself. The supervisor told me she could cancel my service with no billing for future service “as a 1-time courtesy.” No kidding it’s a one-time thing – I’m canceling my service after all.

Use this method, and you should be “free and clear” of Sprint in no time.

I recently read Made in America by Bill Bryson, which was a fantastic book about how the English language in the US has evolved. As a lover of US history, I relished Bryson’s inclusion of rich nuggets of trivia and minutiae that reminded me of AP American History class.

One of the best was the section on Thomas Paine. Every child learns about him and his “Common Sense” pamphlet that spread like wildfire. What most kids don’t know is that “Common Sense” was his only success as a writer, most of his ideas were idiotic, and he was a very dirty man.

How dirty? Bryson noted a contemporary writing that he was “so neglectful in his person that he is generally the most abominably dirty being on the face of the earth.”

Founding Father John Adams didn’t have very nice things to say about him either, saying he was “a poor, ignorant, malicious, short-sighted, crapulous man.” What a fantastic word, crapulous, meaning sick from excessive indulgence in liquor.

Tea Partiers, take note. This man, Thomas Paine, which you hold as a rallying symbol, isn’t all he’s cracked up to be. He’s dirty, ignorant, and so crapulous that you may want to consider a different mascot.

I don’t watch much TV, but I’m a big fan of the Apprentice. The first season, when I was a wee pup having just graduated, I was fascinated by Bill Ransick’s rise to the top, and have watched every season since.

Celebrity Apprentice is a big step down from the original, but I still love figuring out how I would solve the business problems. Word on the street is that the real Apprentice with “normal” people will be back next season.

This season, I have been puzzled by 2 questions, both of which can be seen from this picture:

1. Why is cancer-survivor Darryl Strawberry smoking? He’s had terrible addictions to everything from cocaine to painkillers, but why would a man that survived colon cancer and had 24 inches of his colon, lymph nodes, and a kidney removed to combat cancer, then pick up smoking. That’s absolutely crazy. Trump should fire him for that alone.

2. Why does Sinbad carry around a leopard print blanket with him at all times? I’ve scoured the Internet but cannot find the answer.