King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 7-21

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Numbers keep rising – we hit another new record over the weekend for most infections in a day. Yesterday’s number was 180. The model calls for continued increases.

However, I believe we’re going to hit a plateau and potentially even start decreasing. Mask adoption has drastically improved, behaviors have changed, and people are taking this seriously. I had thought that the protests were largely over, however, the events in Seattle over the weekend proved otherwise. I do believe protests are a major source of spread – see: people packed together yelling. This is one of the mitigating factors that is causing community spread and makes me less bullish on improvement – hence, predicting plateau vs. decline.

I did an informal data capture while standing in front of Whole Foods on Sunday before they opened. (No, I’m not some Whole Foods fanatic; I failed to anticipate the reduced store hours.) Now, granted, Whole Foods is going to have a bit of a liberal bent. However, 94% of the people were wearing masks while standing outside. Inside, a full 100% were wearing masks, and Whole Foods provided free masks upon entering the store.

Ok – to the model. The model predicts 194 for today. In a surprise move, I’m going to take the under: we’re going to be looking at weekend test results and there’s potential for a pleasant surprise.

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