King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-29

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You have to go back to April 8th to find a day with as many reported infections as today. 168. Yikes, that’s a high number of infections for a Sunday.

The test result data was finally updated so we have more insight there. We’ve been averaging 2,500 tests per day, much higher than before. And while infection rates have gone up, they’re still in the low single digits. Last week we averaged 4.2% of the tests coming back positive, while the week before it was in the mid-2%s.

Hence, Inslee mandated masks on Friday. I definitely noticed it at the grocery store – about 90% of people had masks vs. approximately 2/3 last week.

The polynomial model improved in strength further. It is predicting 90. I think it’s going to be close. The logarithmic model now has an R-squared below 0.70. I’ll keep it running just for fun. It predicts 44.

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