King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-17

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Hi readers.

Today’s number was 38, more than double the model @ 17. Hitting 38 is barely enough to keep us in Phase 2 consideration. Consistently hitting 40 or over is game-over.

Another interesting development: The # of tests performed is down in recent days. I’m not sure what’s going on, but tests are down 20% vs. last week. If it’s just that demand is down, that would be great. However, the % of tests that are positive is increasing. So, I’m wondering if there is some sort of lag in the test results, or if King County has “misplaced” some recent tests. Usually, they use Saturday to catch up.

If you don’t think that King County has an issue with data quality, check out today’s chart that is published on King County’s website. There were “Negative 1” deaths today. What does that mean? Was someone raised from the dead today?

The model says 16 for tomorrow, but I’m not buying it. I’ll take the over.

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