King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-12

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Today’s number is 60. That’s a big jump and concerning. I dug into the numbers, and half the infections are from yesterday, and the other half come from March/April/May. Yes, you read that correctly. King County shifted higher infection counts from March, April, and May by as much as 7 per day. Just crazy. No accuracy or accountability. An embarassment.

Anyway, 27 of the infections are from Thursday (yesterday), which is also concerning because there were only 519 tests conducted yesterday where the results are in. Based on an average of 1,500 tests per day over the past few weeks, that means the “true” number for yesterday could be closer to 75 when the remaining ~1,000 results come in.

27 infections out of 519 tests is a 5%+ infection rate, way above recent figures in the 1-2% range. Here’s a chart over the past month.

It’s kind of a funny trend – almost a spike every weekend. I wonder though if this is the first of the impact from the protests that we’ve seen. We know that Houston and Oregon have already been identified as hotspots. Will Seattle go back on the list? Averaging 75 infections per day would indefinitely postpone phase 2 status for King County.

The other interesting impact of the revisions to month-old numbers is that it improved the model fit. Apparently the model is doing a better job than King County at tracking the numbers. R-squared is up to 0.8481. The prediction for tomorrow is 17. I’m sticking with the over.

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