Author: Sam

198 was yesterday’s number, and the standard linear model nailed it again (prediction of 185). The polynomial model predicted 144 and had its second day in a row of being too optimistic. The polynomial model says 151 for today and still shows a gradual decline of infections, predicting 0 by

The Polynomial model won yesterday, and if you read yesterday’s post, then you know that’s a very good thing. It appears we’ve hit the inflection point and are now trending down in new COVID-19 infections. Yesterday came in at 155, and the Polynomial model was spot on with a prediction

The model did pretty well again: predicted 189, and actuals came in at 164. King County still isn’t reporting negative tests, total tests, or any timeline toward doing so. Weak. Summary of tomorrow’s predictions: Standard model (aka base case): 181 Lagged model (aka worst case): 205 Polynomial model (aka best

Boom. Today was the largest day for new COVID-19 infections: 269 in King County. However, due to the changes in how King County Health is reporting data, only 83 of these are attributed to “yesterday.” The rest are spread pretty evenly across the past week. for example: 3/28: +18 3/29:

The model predicted 166. King County came in with 131 reported infections. That’s great news! Test volume remained fairly steady at about 1,000 tests, and the infection rate was 14%, down from yesterday but still above historic averages. The model didn’t blink based on the recent update; sticking to its

Drumroll please… The linear model predicted 161 new COVID-19 infections today… and the result from King County Public Health: 175. Not bad! A little concerning: of the new tests, 17% were positive. That’s up from 13% the day before. The number of test hit almost a thousand again – most

Both King County Public Health and Washington Department of Health went 48 hours without updating the public on COVID-19 infections, then shared a confusing update with a surprising lack of detail. I dug into the numbers and found some issues with the most recent update. First, there has been significant

I’m pretty irritated with both the Washington Department of Public Health and King County Public Health. Neither posted an update on COVID-19 infections in over 48 hours. That being said, they just pushed out an update, and the numbers look VERY promising. The lower testing numbers do not appear to