King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 7-6

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Even though I don’t post every day, I do check the numbers every day. On Sunday, I breathed a sigh of relief – the number was 65. I figured we would probably plateau and then head back down, with masks and phase 2 lockdowns still in place.

I had no idea that it was a fluke – yesterday’s number was 230 – the highest single-day number ever recorded in King County. Now, there’s a big asterisk next to that, because there was a data lag and 230 represents infections over several days. Not unsurprising given it’s 1) King County and 2) a holiday weekend.

Still, if you average 65 and 230, it’s still almost 150 infections per day. Big numbers. I do expect them to drop, but it might take longer than I was expecting.

The model predicts 127 for today.

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