King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-24

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Today was not a good day for King County COVID-19 infections. We put 133 new ones on the board today, the biggest single-day tally since April 16th.

It’s interesting that today was another “negative” number for deaths. King County Public health just can’t get it right. If the numbers are somewhat accurate (which is not a given), at least they aren’t increasing, which is great! I suspect there will be pressure to keep the economy open if deaths remain low – decision-makers won’t be looking at the infections number as closely as the death number. Deaths are a lagging indicator, so I wonder if we’ll see a mini-spike in a week or two.

Now, to the models. The logarithmic model is losing power rapidly due to the recent upswing. It may need to be retired. The models say we’ll hit between 44 and 48 tomorrow. It’s going to be higher.

Here’s a fun model. I made 3rd and 4th-degree polynomial models using all historic King County Data, and it came out with a decent fit. Watch out for that up-slope!

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