King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 6-11

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The model predicted 19, and King County came in at 23. Very close.

The interesting development today: the past two days have had the lowest % of positive test results since testing began. 1.6% on Monday and 1.4% yesterday. That’s pretty low when we were in double-digits not too long ago.

I wonder, though, if there isn’t a broader trend here. Since elective hospital procedures have resumed and other activities have required a negative test to participate as well, I wonder if we’re not seeing more healthy people take tests vs. those with symptoms. That would skew the % positive number down even if it were the same or rising.

The model says 18 infections tomorrow.

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