The model said 20, but we came in yesterday at 29. King County also bumped up slightly in cases per 100k residents and now exceed the arbitrary standard for entry into Phase 2. I expect we’ll slide under it again soon and be eligible for phase 2 next week.
Still no jump in “protest”-related infections that is perceivable from the data. One hypothesis I have – since protesters skew younger and more healthy, I wonder if there are more mildly symptomatic/asymptomatic cases resulting directly from the protests. However, the R0 matters, and it could be that the first order of infections aren’t important thing to keep our eye on, but instead, all the follow-on infections. The people that the protesters spread coronavirus to aren’t necessarily in the same demographic. Could be to parents or grandparents. So, maybe we should look for a spike not now, but 5-10 days from now once follow-on infections would have happened.
The model says 19 for tomorrow. Again, I’ll take the over.