Let’s start with the charts…
The models still have good fit. However, over the past two weeks, numbers haven’t really declined. Here are the last two weeks zoomed-in. Pretty flat.
So what should we expect moving forward? I expect that line to remain pretty flat, even as Jay Inslee starts to open up Washington. “Super spreading” events are not going to take place: big events, large groups, choir rehearsals, etc. While people will be out more, the impact to R0 should be low.
What do the models say:
- The polynomial model is pretty optimistic, predicting 28. I think the predictive power of this model will drop off pretty quickly.
- The logarithmic model is predicting 66. Which seems pretty optimistic at this point as well but we’ll see.