King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 5-13

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Several more “low” days, which is great. 42 was today’s number. For 3 days in a row we’ve landed below 60 and 6 days in a row below 75. However, as I’ve mentioned I believe there’s the possibility of a mini-surge on Friday/Saturday.

Also, there’s an update on why the infected number went negative last week. Apparently, King County Public Health started co-mingling data of positive COVID-19 tests and positive tests for ANTIBODIES. This is a no-no, and King County had to scrub 317 positive results for antibodies from the COVID-19 positive results. Any well-run organization would report these numbers separately. However, now they are just “gone.”

The logarithmic model is looking very strong now with it’s r-squared quite improved @ 0.79. It’s going with 48 for tomorrow.

The polynomical model is still ticking. It’s going with 9 tomorrow and predicting 1 on Friday. We’ll see about that.

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