The Polynomial model won yesterday, and if you read yesterday’s post, then you know that’s a very good thing. It appears we’ve hit the inflection point and are now trending down in new COVID-19 infections.
Yesterday came in at 155, and the Polynomial model was spot on with a prediction of 152. Both the overall and the lagged models were too high at 181 and 205.
Let’s play this out a bit. let’s say that the polynomial model holds, and “Stay Home, Stay Safe” is working. How long until we hit zero new infections?
Model says, 32 days from now, or May 9th.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. One day at a time. The polynomial model says 145 tomorrow – a decline of 7 from today. We’ll see.