King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 4-23

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Don’t freak out, but there was a little spike today. 120 reported infections in King County vs. the model’s prediction of 69. 1/3 of the infections were delayed from the past few weeks, which bumped up the number.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I think we’re going to see this continue – a plateau so to speak. Some days up, some days down, but remaining in a similar range.

The model says 67 for tomorrow. I’m taking the over – I just don’t think we’ll see the sharp declines the model is now calling for.

What’s interesting and a little scary: If I change the polynomial model from an order of 2 to an order of 3 or 4, the fit improves and the curve starts to increase. Second wave?

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