King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-19

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This was the day I was expecting all week. 131 infections reported – more than double the model’s estimate. Here’s my explanation of what may have happened:

Could there be a 3-day (+ more !!!) lag in getting results? Let’s play this out. The past two days had very low numbers – way below what the model predicted (30 and 44). Then it jumps up to 131 today. What if the past two days represent the tests sent in over the weekend, and today was Monday’s tests. That could explain why they were so low, and today so high. Just calculating this in my head: Take the test Monday, flown to CDC overnight. Receive the test Tuesday. 24-48 hours to do the test. Results back Wednesday or Thursday. Might even come back too late to make the 1pm press release.

The model has flipped back to exponential growth and says 87 tomorrow and steadily above 100 per day starting Sunday. I’ll take the over.

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