King County Coronavirus Daily Prediction: 3-17

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Machine wins again. I took the over, and King County definitely came in under: 30 for the day. Could this be the first sign that social distancing is working?

The daily model has hit an inflection point. The exponential curve has flattened and tops out in the next few weeks. As you can tell from my previous posts, I have 2 models – 1 built on daily infections and 1 built on total infections. The total infections model still shows a steep rise of +4 infections every day – however, that’s arithmetic growth, not geometric / exponential.

Prediction for tomorrow is 57.

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