Pacific Northwest-Coast Bias

With my recent post on #Linsanity, I did a test to see how much traffic various social networks generated. Specifically, I wanted to see if there was any value to posting a link on Google+. I posted a link to my post on the three major Social Networks: Facebook, Twitter, and Google Plus to see which would drive the most traffic.

Sources of Traffic: Test Results

I found that, not surprisingly, Google Plus contributed no traffic to my site. It’s a black hole. However, there were a couple surprising insights:

• Facebook didn’t generate any visits. For most posts, I usually see a trickle of traffic from Facebook, but I was surprised none of my “friends” bothered to click the link.
• I got a surprising amount of traffic from other blogs. I had previously underestimated this traffic.
• Google Reader still delivers. Even though Google has been trying to downplay Google Reader and remove the sharing functionality, and even though I post my full feed on RSS, people still click through. Note: Subscribe to my blog and don’t miss anything! Cut and paste this link in your RSS reader of choice.

I’ll run another test in a few months and see if anything has changed. For now, I will continue using Google+ exactly like I have in the past: Not at all.

• #Infographics are so 2011 #
• 3 minutes on Google+ for the month sounds about right. http://t.co/51l6755U #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-26: With a win tonight, Penn moves into a first place tie in the Ivy League #… http://t.co/h2vGJbuC #
• In 3 years, no one will care that Ryan Braun won an appeal on a positive PED test #

• With a win tonight, Penn moves into a first place tie in the Ivy League #
• Will #Moneyball win any Oscars? @justinmorg #
• How to enter an NFL Draft with only 2 picks: Each team is assigned 7 picks in each NFL draft, but somehow the Oa… http://t.co/uo1gTfCz #
• Thanks @clubtrillion for reminding me: Mich St. attempted a buzzer better in the 2000 championship game, leading by 13 http://t.co/vKMnXVhQ #
• Was Zynga’s IPO really a “flop?”: Zynga’s IPO hit the market on December 16th, 2011, and the stock price sank fr… http://t.co/LnIP946P #
• Is #Linsanity bigger than #Tebowmania : I read a Business Insider report today that said searches for Jeremy Lin… http://t.co/GV2PDJtC #
• I do like the new #Amazon commercial – Is that their first foray into TV advertising? #
• When #Bachelor Ben came to #Bellevue Jason Meznik had to stay in Seattle. This town isn't big enough for 2 Bachelors! #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-19: Just checked Google Plus… Nothing posted by my circles in the last 2 mont… http://t.co/nLHnIvNK #

Zynga’s IPO hit the market on December 16th, 2011, and the stock price sank from the $10 IPO price to $9.50 at the closing bell.

Was the stock a “flop,” as so many commentators stated?

In my opinion, not at all! Zynga was the real winner in this.

Zynga raised $1 Billion by selling 100 million shares at $10 each. At the end of its first day as a publicly traded company, the market determined the shares were really worth $9.50 each.

Zynga sold shares worth $950 M for $1 B, profiting a cool $50 M in one day. Zynga was the real winner and all the IPO investors were losers.

But that’s not what the market commentators would have you believe

The news after the IPO all said that Zynga “flopped.” They stated that the fact that the stock did not go up on the first day was a bad sign for Zynga.

This was a phenomenon that is also taught at business school. At Wharton, it was drilled into us that stocks should go up when they IPO. This was especially important in the tech bubble, which occurred when I was a student there.

I never subscribed to that ideology. It seemed like a bad deal for the company. Back in the tech bubble, some IPOs would climb over 50% in one day. What a huge opportunity cost to the company. They could have sold their shares for 50% more on the open market but chose not to. Where is the wisdom in that?

Commentators would have you believe that a stock that spikes on the first day creates “momentum” and “mojo.” Hogwash. Do you remember how much Wal-Mart went up or down on it’s first day of trading? What about Microsoft or McDonalds? No one remembers because it is completely irrelevant – no more important than how much the stock went up or down on any other day during the year.

It’s time to stop gauging a stock by it’s IPO performance

Any analyst would tell you, measuring any stock by it’s performance on one day would be ludicrous. So why do we put so much emphasis on IPO price? It’s time to stop.

The only thing we should gauge by the IPO performance is the capabilities of the management. If the price ends up at or below the IPO price on day 1 of trading, it was a success. And for Zynga, I give Mark Pincus, the CEO, two thumbs up. He successfully sold a $9.50 stock for $10, profiting $50 M in the process. He got exactly what he wanted, and the investors were the suckers, not him.

I read a Business Insider report today that said searches for Jeremy Lin have now outpaced Tim Tebow, and I didn’t believe it. I used Google trends to do my own analysis.

It turns out that it’s a dead heat. Searches for Jeremy Lin are higher than Tim Tebow, but when searches for just “Tebow” are included, Tebow takes the cake. We’ll see if the #Linsanity continues.

• Just checked Google Plus… Nothing posted by my circles in the last 2 months. #
• March Madness prep: Kentucky and UNC are the only members of the top 10 who don't have a signature road win http://t.co/qmuPwsTn #
• Suddenly the Knicks are getting some major network coverage: Friday's game on ESPN. Sunday on ABC. Thursday on TNT. #
• Obligatory Jeremy Lin post of the day: 8 minutes into the game vs the Kings: 5 points, 6 assists. This just isn't fair. #Linsanity #
• Jeremy Lin. That is all #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-12: Jeremy Lin > Tebow @SeanRhorer @mcarr1 # Knicks victory. Jeremy Lin: 38 p… http://t.co/oCo5qUoN #
• Jeremy Lin may be our only hope against LeBron. #Linsanity #

• Jeremy Lin > Tebow @SeanRhorer @mcarr1 #
• Knicks victory. Jeremy Lin: 38 points, 7 assists. #Linsanity !! #
• Yes! Wood stove USB charger: http://t.co/B1puYxlA #
• It's #Linsanity #
• Why are there 2 Washingtons? http://t.co/mKnzK2No #
• Crown plaza shrimp and grits. #RAH12 #
• Octopus blind date: Feb 14 #RAH12 #
• #RAH12 and go! #
• The TV network broadcasting an #NFL game has an impact on the % of challenges overturned. http://t.co/hhnDtZ9d #
• When Ahmad Bradshaw scored the touchdown, Giants win probability DECREASED from 98% to 88%. http://t.co/4QLuWlsI #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-02-05: If you're not using ebates to get cash back while shopping online, you ar… http://t.co/kGZGZvME #

• If you're not using ebates to get cash back while shopping online, you are missing out. http://t.co/uDhAkoYq #
• Awesome post by Nate Jackson on getting a concussion in the NFL. http://t.co/l7MAEuoK #
• Probabilities of winning the Super Bowl Box Game: One of my favorite games during the Super Bowl is the 100-squa… http://t.co/invMg13D #
• Next, the NFL is going to trademark "#BigGame" and "#SuperSunday." Then no one will actually be allowed to refer to the #SuperBowl again. #
• It's really creepy that Google is asking me to import my email from Hotmail, and it already knows my Hotmail address. #
• Only an Ohioan can appreciate: Former Ohio State University football coach Jim Tressel has sold his Upper Arlington home to Bobby Layman #
• World's population by latitude and longitude; remarkably bell-shaped: http://t.co/4yRIv8f7 #
• Ideas for Brandon League's Twitter Handle: @HiBrandon, @BLeagueChew #BLTweet #
• Worst bracket ever… "In a completely useless exercise, we present a bracket of the 32 greatest soups" http://t.co/t117lfOM #
• Record intact. 31 years, still haven't watched a Pro Bowl. #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-29: Tom Brady gives Uggs to his teammates to celebrate Super Bowl Appearance:… http://t.co/TrNTA5Zk #

• Tom Brady gives Uggs to his teammates to celebrate Super Bowl Appearance: http://t.co/0J21t8As #
• Booked my first flight through Hipmunk. What an amazing tool. #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-22: When I am looking for Peyton Manning info, I trust one source: Rob Lowe #… http://t.co/s59AKGbg #

• When I am looking for Peyton Manning info, I trust one source: Rob Lowe #
• Results of the 2011 – 2012 Bowl Pick-em Strategy: As you may know, I posted my strategy for picking College Foot… http://t.co/k2FLA3U1 #
• Twitter Weekly Updates for 2012-01-15: Worst National Championship Ever # Fierce Alabama defense caused ANOTHER … http://t.co/hDaQFJtU #